A Data Driven Mock Draft
My first first round mock draft of 2026
Good morning everyone,
I have swapped out my 2025 weekly mock draft content for exploratory data analyses across college football and the NFL. But don’t worry, mock drafts are back now. We have a little less than a month until the 2026 NFL Draft in Pittsburgh, that really snuck up on us.
Background on these cards
This was one of the first projects I posted online back in 2023. It started before I knew how model building worked, and I was comparing raw stats to raw stats via cosine similarity to find the most similar players. In 2024, I learned about the k-nearest neighbors algorithm for finding similarity and changed these measurements to use percentile rankings to measure similarity. I didn’t make any updates to it for this season as I’ve focused less on draft content lately and more on other things. Not for any particular reason, I just think the draft content space is very crowded with some amazing material.
I added the caveat of “Go Watch Film” in the subtitle to offset the wonky comparisons that might pop up, especially for positions like offensive linemen that are more combine measurements based since they don’t have many free stats available online.
If you’d like to generate these cards for any prospect since 2006, you can use this Streamlit app. The original dataset I used coalesced missing combine data with pro day data, so it makes for a pretty comprehensive dataset. I’ve varied how I’ve gathered the data over the years, it started as straight typing and various web scrapers duct taped together. But it came from a lack of speed when gathering combine data, I wanted to run some live comparisons against the set during the combine.
This write-up definitely isn’t as verbose as mine usually are because this week has been incredibly busy. The data driven portion is meant to be tongue in cheek. I’ve been creating some stuff I’m really excited to share with you all soon, but can’t just yet. More on that later. That’s all there is to it though, I hope you enjoy the mock draft and talk soon - RC
Round 1 Mock Draft
1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
Won’t waste your time with this one. This one’s a lock across mocks. A mock lock, if you will.
2. New York Jets: Arvell Reese, DE, Ohio State
I wanted to give the Jets Reese’s teammate Sonny Styles, but they made way too many free agency linebacker signings for me to include that in a realistic mock.
3. Arizona Cardinals: Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami
The Cardinals take Mauigoa who should be their franchise cornerstone right tackle for years to come with the third overall pick. Francis’ brother, Francisco, is currently a linebacker in the Jets organization.
4. Tennessee Titans: David Bailey, DE, Texas Tech
A lot of experts have Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love going here to Nashville but I think they lean defense here instead.
5. New York Giants: Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State
A good Giants defense gets even better with a game breaker like Styles. Abdul Carter, Dexter Lawrence, and Sonny Styles playing together would be insane. Note: I wrote this before Lawrence publicly requested a trade. They could still use Styles here though.
6. Cleveland Browns - Spencer Fano, OT, Utah
7. Washington Commanders - Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
Classic conundrum here of placing too many players in where needs are, then seeing a way too talented player fall too much. I can see the Commanders wanting to upgrade on their running back position, and Love might be the most talented player in the draft.
Reminder that my model and Daniel Jeremiah got the same comp for Love, Demarco Murray. That was cool. I have a half-baked idea to write a CFB unsolved mysteries article about how no one knows how many fumbles Demarco Murray had in college, but we’ll save that for another day.
8. New Orleans Saints - Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU
9. Kansas City Chiefs - Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
I mean, come on. A Brian Hartline comp to Carnell Tate? How can you not be romantic about KNN?
10. Cincinnati Bengals - Rueben Bain Jr., DE, Miami
11. Miami Dolphins - Makai Lemon, WR, USC
Almost everyone has Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson ranked higher than Lemon, but I prefer Lemon. Dolphins soften the blow of losing Tyreek Hill by getting Lemon as Malik Willis’ #1 target.
12. Dallas Cowboys - Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
I think the Caleb Downs foot injury stuff is probably smoke from a team hoping he drops. But I see Downs going in Kyle Hamilton territory in the first round.
13. Los Angeles Rams (from Falcons) - Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State
Seems like everyone is mocking a wide receiver to the Rams. This would be an embarrassment of riches. Davante Adams, Puka Nacua, and Jordyn Tyson? Good luck, NFC.
14. Baltimore Ravens - Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee
A Travis Hunter comp? The first I’ve seen so far. This is only comparing his CB half of stats though.
16. New York Jets (from Colts) - Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon
Geno Smith finds his new Brock Bowers here with Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq. I think this would be very exciting to see.
17. Detroit Lions - Olaivavega Ioane, OT, Penn State
18. Minnesota Vikings - Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon
Don’t make a Harrison Smith comp. Don’t make a Harrison Smith comp. Don’t make a Harrison Smith comp.
19. Carolina Panthers - Max Iheanachor, OT, Arizona State
20. Dallas Cowboys (from Packers) - Keldric Faulk, DE, Auburn
21. Pittsburgh Steelers - Akheem Mesidor, DE, Miami
22. Los Angeles Chargers - Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama
I’ve liked Proctor ever since I saw him take a goal line carry last season. He didn’t score, but it showed grit.
23. Philadelphia Eagles - Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo
The Eagles desperately need a safety. McNeil-Warren helps with that. He’ll probably go before 23 although Thieneman tested better at the combine. That’s 3 safeties I have going in the first round.
24. Cleveland Browns (from Jaguars) - Denzel Boston, WR, Washington
25. Chicago Bears - Blake Miller, OT, Clemson
26. Buffalo Bills - Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana
I tend to always have an WR-heavy round 1. Why do I feel like the Bills always need a wide receiver?
27. San Francisco 49ers - Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah
28. Houston Texans - Kayden McDonald, DT, Ohio State
29. Kansas City Chiefs (from Rams) - Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee
30. Miami Dolphins (from Broncos) - Peter Woods, DT, Clemson
31. New England Patriots - Cashius Howell, DE, Texas A&M
32. Seattle Seahawks - Jacob Rodriguez, LB, Texas Tech
32 is always a weird spot and I feel like someone always makes it to day 2 without us understanding why. KC Concepcion is that person for me this year. It’s hard to find needs for the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks so I have them taking a flyer on the leader of the mustache crew.
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