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Sam Hartman's avatar

Fascinating!

One thing that you talked about a little is the injury piece. In the NBA, even the best players will only average 30-35 minutes per game. That works out to ~60-70% of the possible minutes they could play.

Whereas in the NFL, your star offensive linemen are rarely missing snaps in a game. Without injuries, not missing an offensive snap all year is very doable.

That means that unlike in the NBA, injury is really the only way good linemen would leave the field. This seems to be why they benefit the most; assuming you're the only starting lineman that's hurt, you accrue all of the "difference" between yourself and the backup. The other 4 linemen don't get that benefit unless they get injured or substituted.

You mention a similar concept in the case of Tua, correctly pointing out that he gets a bump due to the horrific backups they had. That's kind of by design (if Tua is way better than a backup QB, he should have a high RAPM), but you just don't get to see that difference for any QB that started all 17 games.

Ray Carpenter's avatar

Thanks, Sam! It’s definitely a square peg/round hole situation with trying to morph this NBA Stat into an NFL one. I always default to o-linemen as being difficult to capture. I appreciate the feedback though, I’ll definitely re-visit this at some point in the offseason

Sam Hartman's avatar

I don't want to come off as too harsh though, because I think this is really cool! I think it probably works really well for rotational guys, because you get a lot more on/off data when a guy is only on the field 50% of the time.

Ray Carpenter's avatar

Not harsh at all, no worries! And I really appreciate the feedback. I hope that my writing in the piece conveyed that I’m not pushing this as a finished product (or very refined yet) in any way. Just was an interesting exercise to try